Palestine Think Tank

The Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development has released its poll results.  The poll was conducted under strict sampling methodology (margin of error +/- 1.6%) amongst a representative population in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Lebanon and Jordan.  The full survey can be viewed here: 2008 Arab Public Opinion Survey (power point).

Key Findings of the March 2008 Poll:

Iraq: Only 6% of Arabs polled believe that the American surge has worked.  A plurality (35% ) do not believe reports that violence has in fact declined.  Over 61% believe that if the US were to withdraw from Iraq, Iraqis will find a way to bridge their differences, and only 15% believe the civil war would expand.  81% of Arabs polled (outside Iraq) believe that the Iraqis are worse off than they were before the Iraq war.

Iran: In contrast with the fears of many Arab governments, the Arab public does not appear to see Iran as a major threat.  Most believe that Iran has the right to its nuclear program and do not support international pressure to force it to curtail its program.  A plurality of Arabs (44%) believes that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, the outcome would be more positive for the region than negative.

The Arab Israeli conflict: There is an increase in the expressed importance of the Palestinian issue, with 86% of the public identifying it as being at least among the top three issues to them.  A majority of Arabs continues to support the two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, but an increasing majority is pessimistic about its prospects. If the prospects of a two state solution collapse, 50% believe it would lead to a state of intense conflict for years to come, while only 9% believe it would lead to a one-state solution, and only 7% believe that the Palestinians would eventually surrender.

Palestinian Divisions: In the conflict between Hamas and Fatah, only 8% sympathize with Fatah most, while 18% sympathize with Hamas, and 38% sympathize with both to some extent.  In so far as they see Palestinians as somewhat responsible for the state of affairs in Gaza, 15% blame Hamas’s government most, 23% blame the government appointed by President Mahmoud Abbas, and 39% blame both equally.

The Lebanese Crisis: Only 9% express sympathy with the majority governing coalition in the current internal crisis in Lebanon, while 30% sympathize with the opposition led by Hizbollah, 24% sympathize with neither side, and 19% sympathize with both to some extent.

Popular Leaders: Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, increased his popularity as the most admired leader in the Arab world (26%)  There was also an increase in the popularity of President Bashar Assad of Syria.   Also striking, however, was the emerging popularity of modernizing Sunni Arab leaders, particularly Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid al Maktoum of Dubai, when respondents identify the two leaders they admire most.

Attitudes toward the US

Global Outlook

Media:  Al-Jazeera continues to command the largest share of the Arabic news market, with 53% of Arabs polled identifying it as their first choice for news, with practically no change from last year. Egyptian Television and Al-Arabiya have made some gains over last year. To a plurality of respondents, the quality of both Al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera has improved over previous years, with only a small minority perceiving a decline.

From Friends of Lebanon http://www.friendsoflebanon.org/index_files/Announcements5.htm